Never call the race before the Oscar nominations.
Sure, “12 Years a Slave” came out of TIFF13 and Telluride twelve years ahead of the pack but there are any number of movies yet to be seen in America, like “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “The Monuments Men,” and “Foxcatcher” — to name a few.
Steve Pond over at The Wrap has already submitted 5 reasons why “12 Years a Slave” isn’t an Oscar lock. The primary reason is Credo #2: it’s too damn early. As Pond says, it’s a marathon not a sprint. Agreed.
Here are a few examples of movies that pulled out strong and lost the race:
2013: “Zero Dark Thirty” loses to “Argo”
2012: “The Descendants” loses to “The Artist”
2011: “Black Swan” and “The Fighter” lose to “The King’s Speech”
Relatively famous upsets: “Crash” trumps “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and “Shakespeare in Love” spikes “Saving Private Ryan” (1998).
Do you have any other famous examples to share to expand this post? Or other Oscarologist Credos for future posts?