Paul Giamatti

OK, we’re just out of Toronto (at least I am). It’s a crap shoot as to who will make the best actor shortlist — but it’s not as much of a crap shoot as it was a week ago. This is going to be one very hot race. So, let’s start off with the shoe-in:

1. George Clooney, The Descendants

2. Brad Pitt, Tree of Life or Moneyball

3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist

4. Woody Harrelson, Rampart

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

And don’t forget:

6. Michael Fassbender, Shame

7. Gerard Butler, Machine Gun Preacher

8. Dominic Cooper, The Devil’s Double

9. Paul Giamatti, Win Win

10. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

11. Ryan Gosling, Drive or The des of March

12. Tom Hardy, Warrior

George Clooney,Ryan Gosling,George Clooney Director,Political Drama,Evan Rachel Wood,Oscar,Farragut North

Gosling-Clooney have Time on their hands

There’s a reason that the initial reaction to the George Clooney directed and co-written political drama has been so subdued. Clooney is so damn likeable, and charming, and affable, and amiable, that we don’t want him to feel bad. I certainly don’t. Ides of March isn’t bad. Not at all. It just isn’t Oscar-worthy. It’s flat and safe. It resembles The West Wing without the adrenaline and walk and talk. And it’s no In the Loop, and far from the political sophistication and savage wit of that movie’s blistering BBC TV predecessor The Thick of It.

No one’s bad in March: not Clooney in a key but supporting role as the Governor running for President, not Philip Seymour Hoffman as his fixer or Ryan Gosling as the idealistic staffer whose character is forged in a contested Ohio Democratic primary.

It’s just that when it comes to Oscar contenders, we’ll have to wait for that other Clooney movie, the one he didn’t direct, the one he stars in: Alexander Payne’s The Descendants. I’ll be there to see it Saturday morning — and can’t wait to fall in love again.

Oscars 2012: Best Actor First Look

TIFF11 Day One: Beware the Ides of March